With Mario Kart World cruising its way onto store shelves at $80, Nintendo followers who have been in any other case stoked concerning the promise of the Nintendo Switch 2 have spent the final 24 hours balking on the prospect of doling out that many coins, even for a game they really feel is a must-have.
We wrote earlier today about why Mario Kart World, in addition to the Nintendo Switch 2 itself and plenty of of its equipment, are so dang costly. But understanding the “why” of it doesn’t actually ease the ache on the pockets. What’s more, we learned just this morning that a quantity of Nintendo Switch 2 Edition video games, together with The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and Kirby and the Forgotten Land, will even be $80. And with the AAA game price increase from $60 to $70 still firmly within recent memory, followers at the moment are frightened that more and more video games, Nintendo or in any other case, are going to begin getting more and more and more costly.
So what does the long run maintain? Are $80 video games the brand new Nintendo regular?
As regular, fairly than speculate ourselves, we went and located some knowledgeable analysts to inform us what they suppose goes to occur.
A New Nintendo Normal
NYU Stern professor and writer of SuperJoost Playlist, Joost van Dreunen, believes Nintendo is utilizing Mario Kart World as a “test case for premium pricing,” and can consider client response earlier than making use of this more broadly. Spoilers: the response hasn’t been great so far! But sentiment shouldn’t be the identical as gross sales, and Nintendo will possible measure success by how properly Mario Kart World really sells.
“If the $80 price point succeeds, Nintendo will likely extend it selectively to their most valuable franchises rather than making it standard across their first-party lineup. Franchises that could potentially justify the premium pricing include:
- The Legend of Zelda – the next mainline entry following Tears of the Kingdom could command $80 given the series' prestige and the expansive scope these games typically offer.
- New 3D Mario adventures – for major releases in the vein of Super Mario Odyssey, Nintendo could position these as premium products.
- Super Smash Bros. – the next installment of this franchise would be a strong candidate for premium pricing due to its extensive roster and competitive staying power.
“Games that likely wouldn't justify the premium price include smaller-scale entries, remasters, and series with more niche appeal. Nintendo will probably maintain a tiered pricing strategy, with their tent-pole franchises at $80, mid-tier releases at $60-70, and smaller titles at traditional price points.”
Rhys Elliott, video games analyst at Alinea Analytics, had a related take, pointing to the top 10 best-selling Nintendo Switch games as a guide for what we’d see get an $80 price tag sooner or later. “I could see Nintendo pricing mainline Pokémon games, mainline Zelda games, and the inevitably imminent 3D Mario and Animal Crossing games at $80 physical (but $70 digital still).”
And James McWhirter, analyst at Omdia, added a recommended hypothetical Splatoon 4 to the record of prospects, together with one other thought on future monetization:
“For titles that do not adopt the $80 base price, Nintendo could lean in more heavily in alternative forms of monetisation, including those it has so far refrained from using, such as tying paid early access to higher value editions of its games.”
Grand Theft, Grand Price?
That covers Nintendo, however what about different video games? Earlier this 12 months, we covered a flurry of speculation on one specifically: Grand Theft Auto 6. At the time, we have been responding to rumors and dialogue that Take-Two would possibly price the sequel to the over 200 million promoting blockbuster at $80, $90, and even $100. Analysts recommended that the high finish of this was fairly unlikely, however what about now? Will Grand Theft Auto 6 price $80… and even more?
Tiago Reis, market analyst at Newzoo, actually thinks so. “For sure. Big hits that are highly anticipated (e.g., GTA 6, new CODs) can get away with it due to franchise recognition. Most people are not going to stop buying these games because they are $10 more expensive. If consumers are willing to wait, they can get it at a discount a couple of months after release. But by then, these companies have already extracted max value/price from the people who are less price sensitive.”
Reis’ colleague Lauren Universe, shopper companies supervisor at Newzoo, added: “Frankly, I expect base GTA to be at least $80, with multiple options of various increased prices (like Civ 7) that include expansions, DLCs, and ‘early access.’”
Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, agreed, and even expanded on who may be curious about raising costs past simply Take-Two. “I do consider there’s a likelihood that corporations like Microsoft or Sony might really feel inspired to raise their costs now. Would you be shocked if Take-Two now thought to themselves: ‘If Nintendo can charge $80 for a Mario Kart game, we can do the same for GTA 6 – a title thousands of people have been working on for 12 years?”
Nuno Domingues Marques, also a market analyst at Newzoo, similarly brought up Sony and Microsoft as possible candidates for price hikes. “I am unsure if Sony/Xbox will wait for their next generation to make the push or if they will adjust post-Switch launch, but certainly, it seems like the way forward. Third-party publishers will jump on it as soon as they feel it is justified, which is likely ASAP. Not all exclusive games will cost $80, in my opinion though. Games like Ratchet & Clank or other smaller niche experiences are likely to keep lower price points.”
But Elliott pushed back a bit on the idea that Mario Kart World could have opened a higher pricing floodgate. He pointed out that at least in the UK and Europe (U.S. price discrepancies are still unconfirmed), Nintendo is charging more for the physical edition of Mario Kart World than digital in an effort to push more consumers toward the digital edition. But he suspects that because the other two console platforms are far more digitally-oriented than Nintendo (something he discussed in more detail in our other piece on the Switch 2 pricing), this would be a tougher sell for other publishers.
“While I believe Take Two could charge over $70 for GTA 6, I maintain that it is a bad idea for three reasons. [One,] the real cash cow is GTA Online and its recurring revenues, so limiting the total addressable audience at launch wouldn't be smart. There’s additionally a cost-of-living disaster occurring globally and GTA appeals to everybody – wealthy and fewer lucky.
"[Two,] Rockstar needs to move players from GTA 5, and a higher floor for the switching cost would limit the GTA 5-to-GTA 6 player acquisition. Players not budging from GTA 5 is probably one of GTA 6's biggest threats, one GTA hasn't really faced before. After all, live services are mostly zero-sum in today's oversaturated attention economy. GTA 6 isn't just competing against competitors' games, it's competing with TikTok, Netflix, and even its predecessor.
"[Three,] Rockstar can simply charge $100 or more for an version of GTA 6 with a week of early entry, possibly with a shark card thrown in. Players with disposable income can pay for it. This is the most effective of each worlds for Take-Two. This is just about the norm for AAA video games lately.”
Elliott concluded that even with all that in thoughts, GTA 6 nonetheless stands a higher likelihood than some other game at withstanding a price hike with its client base intact. So finally, the query of GTA 6’s pricing stays an unimaginable one to reply up to the purpose the place Take-Two lastly publicizes it.
Living in Interesting Times
I’ll finish on a hopeful be aware, although, which I acquired from each Mat Piscatella, analyst at Circana, and a couple of analysts at Newzoo. These people informed me that whereas we’re more likely to hold seeing video games get more costly (and, as Piscatella factors out, have already been for a whereas through Collector’s Editions and related), we may additionally see them get cheaper in sure methods.
“Other Nintendo games will certainly follow suit,” mentioned Brett Hunt, market analyst at Newzoo. “It could, however, open the door for Nintendo to have an adjusted discounting strategy for the Switch 2.”
Marques agreed. “Maybe we will see a bigger window of pricing as well, as seen from the Donkey Kong game. Creation of space for multiple different-sized games; games that cost $49.99, $59.99, etc., having distinct content depth and breadth expectations. I agree that maybe a new discounting strategy is coming from Nintendo.”
And as Piscatella put it, Nintendo might not be the one firm that sees the need to interrupt with $70 conference in more than only one means. “We actually might see different publishers try to set up even greater base costs for some of their new video games. But we might additionally see more vital price promotion and discounting as properly.
"With all of the uncertainty in the market, we're at a point where both publishers and consumers will have to figure out where things go next. These are, after all, interesting times."
Rebekah Valentine is a senior reporter for IGN. You can discover her posting on BlueSky @duckvalentine.bsky.social. Got a story tip? Send it to [email protected].